Saturday, August 25, 2012

2012 College Football Preview: Top Mid-Majors

If there was ever a year in major college football when the presence of a BCS Buster should not be expected, this is the one. In fact, we've probably seen the last of the BCS Buster for some time.

The usual suspects are simply disappearing. TCU is no longer a BCS Buster after joining the Big 12 this season. The Horned Frogs will be contenders in the Big 12, but there's a certain luster to seeing them trying to upset the big boys of the FCS world.

Boise State isn't close to being the same team it has been in the past, at least not on paper. Graduation seems to have finally hit the Broncos too hard. They'll likely be good when compared to other mid-majors, but they shouldn't reach the elite national level as usual.

Don't expect to see a mid-major team in a BCS bowl for a second straight year, and for many more seasons to come for that matter. Boise State moves into the BCS next year, which eliminates their BCS Buster status. BYU is the one team that seems to have the ability to maybe reach the heights of a BCS Buster again.

However, with the creation of a four-team playoff, BCS busting becomes much less relevant. It was a good run for the mid-majors, but I'm afraid it's over.

So instead of ranking the top BCS Buster threats, since there genuinely aren't any, here's the top 10 mid-majors in the country that the major schools should beware of. Projected record is in parenthesis.

1. Boise State (9-3, 7-1 in MWC)

The Broncos might not be up to the caliber of recent tradition, but this is a team still capable of upsetting school from major conferences. They only get one shot at doing so in the regular season, however, with a Week 1 matchup against Michigan State. Boise State has to replace too many pieces for anyone to feel like the Broncos have the ability to be a BCS Buster, though. Their schedule isn't nearly as strong as it was in the past, either. However, a lot of what happens in the polls is based on reputation. Boise State has developed the reputation that if anyone is going to be a BCS Buster, the Broncos will be. This looks more like a rebuilding year, though.

2. Central Florida (9-3, 7-1 in C-USA)

UCF has as much talent as any mid-major school in the country, including Boise State. The Knights have the good fortune of being able to do most of their recruiting in Florida, which allows them to sneak away some of the state's top talent from the likes of Florida and Florida State. DT E.J. Dunston, in particular, stands out. The Knights have a huge Week 2 matchup at Ohio State on Sept. 8. Two weeks later, they test SEC waters by hosting Missouri. Should either Ohio State or Missouri sleep on the Knights, they're going to suffer an unexpected loss.

3. BYU (7-5)

It's not an impressive predicted record, but the Cougars are still one of the biggest threats among mid-majors. BYU is now an independent, leaving its schedule open for a number of opponents from the major conferences. The Cougars open with Washington State, which should be a win. Two weeks later, they visit in-state rival Utah. Oregon State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech are also on the schedule. Expect BYU to win at least two of those games if not more. With Riley Nelson returning at QB, the Cougars should once again feature a passing game that demands the respect of all opponents.

4. Houston (9-3, 6-2 in C-USA)

Case Keenum is gone, but David Piland is at QB and he got plenty of experience two sesons ago filling in for the injured Keenum. Also gone is coach Kevin Sumlin, but previous Cougars top assistant Tony Levine has taken over the program. Not much will change in Houston in regards of scheme under Levine. Houston will still pass the ball a ton, and having an experienced QB and solid OL means the Cougars will likely remain impressive in doing so. UCLA is the only opponent from a major conference on the Cougars regular season schedule, but Conference USA's bowl affiliations allow for matchups against bigger schools in the postseason.

5. Ohio (11-1, 8-0 in MAC)

QB Tyler Tettleton is the most talented signal-caller in all of the mid-majors this season. Ohio has the pieces to roll through the MAC. This schedule sets the Bobcats up nicely for double-digit wins. A visit to Happy Valley to face beleaguered Penn State in the season opener is the date against a major conference opponent. And Penn State could be ripe for an upset, too, with all the distractions taking place there. It won't be a surprise if Ohio somehow finishes the year undefeated and ranked. The Bobcats strength of schedule keeps them from being a BCS Buster.

6. Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-1 in WAC)

This is one of the most talented teams La. Tech has had in quite some time. Expect the Bulldogs to run away with the downtrodden WAC title, but don't be shocked if they upset a couple major opponents in the process. Texas A&M, Illinois and Virginia are all on the schedule. A&M is the season opener, and if the Aggies decide to look ahead to Florida, then an upset could be brewing. Illinois and Virginia could be upset worthy as well. Beware the Bulldogs.

7. Tulsa (7-5, 6-2 in C-USA)

Tulsa must replace a great QB in G.J. Kinne. Cody Green, a transfer from Nebraska, is stepping into the role and takes over an offense with experience at nearly every other position. That will make his transition into the starting role easier. There are some playmakers on defense as well. The Golden Hurricane will be in position to challenge for the C-USA title. They have matchups against Iowa State and Arkansas later in the season to surprise a major opponent, too. I don't see Tulsa winning either of those games, especially Arkansas, but Iowa State should beware in the season opener.

8. Southern Miss (7-5, 6-2 in C-USA)

Southern Miss impressive a year ago, but coach Larry Fedora moved on to take the job at North Carolina. The Golden Eagles tapped South Carolina defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson as his successor. Johnson has played a major part in the Gamecocks having one of the best defenses in the country the last couple years. It's unlikely So. Miss is as good as it was a year ago, but the Golden Eagles are in good hands. They play as challenging of a schedule as any mid-major with Nebraska and Louisville joining Boise State on the non-conference schedule. It's not crazy to think they'll beat one of those three teams.

9. SMU (6-6, 5-3 in C-USA)

June Jones nearly left the Mustangs, but decided to stick around and continue building on what he's started at SMU. Jones' offenses always put up big numbers, and with RB Zach Line and WR Darius Johnson returning there's no shortage of weapons for University of Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert to utilize. Gilbert didn't fit in with the Longhorns, but Jones' system is much more like the one he play in during his high school career at Lake Travis, Texas, breaking every high school passing record the state recognizes. With Texas A&M, Baylor and bitter rival TCU on the schedule from major conferences, it's hard not to fill like the Mustangs are going to shock someone.

10. Western Michigan (9-3, 6-2 in MAC)

With Alex Carder directing the offense at QB, WMU is a serious threat to any defense. The Broncos aren't going to stop too many offenses, though. That makes them a serious threat in the MAC, but not to many teams from major conferences. But the Broncos will have their opportunities to knock off someone from a big conference. Illinois, Minnesota and Connecticut are all on the schedule and each aren't untouchable for the Broncos.

Source: http://fantasyfootballjungle.com/article/1720/2012_College_Football_Preview_Top_Mid-Majors/

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